I like to think the FST formula of grading players is pretty iron clad and he maxes out each of the criteria. He is the only true three star of this class. The track record we have of grading players speaks for itself and only a handful of times the #1 rated guy has found himself going first overall. Part of that goes with the grading process as most people are sheep and when one guy says they think the guy is the best the rest follow suit.
I heavily look at risk when evaluating the top guy in the class. Some people talk about Austin's size as a potential risk but Percy Harvin has done pretty well. Percy's injury problems have come from ankle issues and that is a taxing injury not one where you are getting annihilated that causes an injury. This draft should be very heavy for defense and I don't see any defensive player that matches Austin's ability and risk. I guarantee some of the top 10 defensive prospects will be busts or disappointments and I view Austin as a sure-fire guaranteed great player. He might not find himself in the Hall of Fame, which you want in the best prospect in the class but I don't view this class as having many Hall of Fame prospects. Guys like Jordan, Milliner, Ansah, Lotuleilei all have risks higher than I view in Austin. Jordan and Ansah are workout warriors and very well could have problems translating into the NFL. Lotuleilei has a heart condition and really when looking at him I was expecting another Haloti Ngata but too often a double team was able to neutralize his game. Milliner is pretty solid but even he will be overdrafted as when I look at him he doesn't resemble a shutdown corner. Shutdown CBs like Deion Sanders and Patrick Peterson both went 5th overall and would you rather have them or Dee Milliner at #5, I would prefer the former. Many would agree but the point is you need value when you are drafting that high.
When you look at OT Luke Joeckel you might be expecting a Tony Boselli type but I think he will never be more than a great starting OT. Jake Long was drafted #1 overall as a Boselli type and he was off the team four years after he was drafted. He was supposed to be iron clad, as OT are some of the safest picks, but he too found himself as a disappointment.
It is hard to argue a WR not in the mold of Calvin Johnson is worthy of a top selection. WRs are generally a dime a dozen but I think a guy like Tavon Austin finds himself in that special two guys that aren't part of that dime or everyday WR. He truly is a special talent. With WRs being found all over the draft, drafting one early needs to be basically a Hall of Fame type guy, but when you look at everything that makes up a Tavon Austin, it is a skill set you won't find in any player drafted in the later rounds. I wouldn't be surprised if Austin finds himself drafted by Buffalo at #8 overall because of their need for playmakers in the offense. When you look back on the draft five years from now will you say that the seven guys drafted before him had a bigger impact, and I don't think they will.
