Updated Big Board

There is absolutely nothing I hate more than busts. I lose sleep at night over busts. Well, I don't mess with busts so I am really unfamiliar with the term myself and I sleep like a baby. This class only has one ***. I haven't had him near the top 10 all year but I have to stick with the system of scouting. For those of you saying Luke Joeckel, you would be wrong. If he was more like a Tony Boselli type than I would have no problem putting him on the site as the #1 overall prospect. I actually like Jake Matthews, Luke Joeckel's teammate, who is returning to school more than I like Luke Joeckel. If Jadeveon Clowney wasn't in the 2014 draft than I think Matthews would be in consideration as the top prospect but Clowney is King. Joeckel is fundamentally solid in everything but he will never be "elite". Don't get me wrong, he is very good but the #1 overall prospect is going to have his name on the site for eternity so I can't have that be someone who is either just good enough or take a risk at another position that ends up flopping. This person needs to represent each category F..S..T to the highest valuable possible and someone that is not going to bust. Tavon Austin is the only player that I have seen that grades as a ***. Just because he is the top prospect doesn't mean he is necessarily a ***, look back at 2009 Matt Stafford was the top prospect and he did not grade out as a ***. I could obviously look at one of the guards who are talented and have little chance to bust but this is FST, not some garbage scouting site. I fully understand that pass rushers and OT are more valuable than WR, especially WR that don't have the opportunity to be elite, such as Austin. Some people have been clowning on this draft, that this draft doesn't have "elite" prospects and I totally agree. We had 5 *** in the Cam Newton draft and this draft is more about those guys in the 2.5/3.0 range than your superstars. There are boat loads of talent in this draft from the 1st to guys that will go undrafted. Some of these guys taken in the 2nd-3rd rds could develop into superstars and I think many of them will, it is just right now they haven't reached that potential so their skill doesn't merit being drafted higher or having a higher ranking.


1) Tavon Austin WR ***
2) Luke Joeckel OT
3) Dion Jordan DE
4) Shariff Floyd DL
5) Eric Fisher OT
6) Dee Milliner CB
7) Chance Warmack G
8) Jonathan Cooper G
9) Ziggy Ansah DE/OLB
10) Geno Smith QB
11) Lane Johnson OT
12) Star Lotuleilei DL
13) Barkevious Mingo DE
14) Cordarrelle Patterson WR
15) Justin Hunter WR
16) Xavier Rhodes CB
17) Jarvis Jones LB
18) Tyler Eifert TE
19) Arthur Brown LB
20) Datone Jones DE
21) Jonathan Cyprien S
22) DJ Fluker OT
23) Damontre Moore DE/OLB
24) Kenny Vaccaro S
25) Johnthan Banks CB

Players to Consider
Sheldon Richardson DL
Bjoern Werner DE
Alec Ogletree LB
Margus Hunt DE
Kevin Minter LB
Manti Te'o LB
Keenan Allen WR
Desmond Trufant CB
Marcus Lattimore RB
Jesse Williams DL
Giovani Bernard RB

Sleeper #2 Charles Johnson WR Grand Valley St

The Steelers could possibly lose Emmanuel Sanders and that is actually who this kid reminds me of. Sanders is basically an outstanding #3 WR who really falls in that between a #2 to #3 WR. Charles Johnson is 6'2" 215 and kind of resembles another Charles Johnson who played for the Steelers with his similar build and speed combination. He has 4.38 speed and is well built. Showed his explosive ability with a 39.5 vertical and a 11'1 broad jump. Broad jump is actually my favorite thing to look at when evaluating a player's explosiveness. Anything above 11' is really good. Have never seen this kid on tape and he is an up and comer after his great pro day workout. The video below shows his workout and the way he runs reminded me of Emmanuel Sanders. He put up 14 reps on the bench which is average-above average for WR but no homo he looks shredded. I would be very curious to see his arm length and other measurements. I would definitely bring this kid in for one of the visits before the draft. This kid is the ultra steal. He could go undrafted but that is highly unlikely after his great workout. I would expect this kid to come off the board in the 6th or 7th round and to me you just found yourself a player for a long time. The sleeper of all sleepers, Charles Johnson.

FST Grade: 6th rd

Prospect Value: 2.2/3.0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IhmE4XhkCQ

Twenty Players Stock Up

RB

Marcus Lattimore 2.65/3.0

Giovani Bernard 2.6/3.0

Jawan Jamison 2.45/3.0

Bernard: mid 2nd rd
Jamison: mid-late 3rd rd
Lattimore: mid-late 2nd rd


LB

Arthur Brown 2.7/3.0

Corey Lemonier 2.65/3.0

Michael Buchanan 2.4/3.0

Brown: 1st-early 2nd rd
Buchanan: 3rd-4th rd
Lemonier: mid 2nd rd

OL 

Eric Fisher 2.65/3.0

Luke Joeckel 2.75/3.0

Jonathan Cooper 2.9/3.0

Fisher: top 5
Joeckel: top 2
Cooper: top 10

 DL

Brandon Williams 2.5/3.0

Joe Kruger 2.4/3.0

Jesse Williams 2.45/3.0

  

Datone Jones 2.65/3.0

B. Williams: late 2nd-3rd rd

J. Williams: early-mid 2nd rd

Kruger: 3rd-5th rd

Jones: mid 1st-early 2nd

DB

Jonathan Cyprien 2.7/3.0

Shamarko Thomas 2.6/3.0

Tyrann Mathieu 2.75/3.0

Cyprien: late 1st-early 2nd

Thomas: early 3rd-4th rd

Mathieu: late 2nd-4th rd

WR

Cordarrelle Patterson 2.75/3.0

Justin Hunter 2.8/3.0

Tavon Austin ***

Patterson: top 20
Hunter: mid-late 1st
Austin: top 20

TE

Tyler Eifert 2.6/3.0

Eifert: top 30 

Steal of Draft! Dion Sims TE

The way I look at this guy is your 1990's TE. Big, strong, and overall solid in everything across the board. He won't wow you with his speed but he is an athlete. He is good after the catch with average speed and the fact he is a bowling ball running over defenders. He is a do it all tight end. Needs to cut some weight so then his speed would be even better. Pretty soft hands and his athleticism is off the charts. For some reason, he is down the board just because people prefer the Hernandez and Gronkowski type tight ends instead of a guy that can block and catch. Could use some work blocking but his technique can be improved with a good TE coach. Has the strength to be a great TE as he had 27 reps on the bench. I really like this kid and should be a steal on day three of the draft.

FST Grade: 3rd rd

Projected Round: early 4th round

Prospect Value: 2.5/3.0

Sleeper #1 Quanterus Smith DE/OLB Western Kentucky

Generally sleepers will be small school kids because today there are even sites like FST Scouting evaluating the crop of college talent. This kid is from Western Kentucky and has ideal measurables for a 3-4 OLB. The knocks on him are he played in a small school and after tearing up his league he tore his ACL 3/4 of the way through the season. He was leading the league in sacks before that happened. He will most likely start the season on PUP for whichever team drafts him. He played against Alabama and you could tell against NFL competition that he would need to put on some weight to be able to play the 3-4 OLB spot. I think he could transition quite nicely into a 4-3 day one, generally a wide 9 scheme run by the Detroit Lions and formerly run by the Eagles. He will be a project at the OLB position but I believe he can do it. The OL of Alabama generally handled him, granted it was DJ Fluker, who will be a first round pick. Fluker has freakish arms, the longest I have ever seen, but he was able to get his hands on him and then at that point Smith had no chance.

He has the frame to add weight quite easily without losing speed. In the run game he wasn't able to handle the run all the time. The offensive line would move him generally where they wanted him. Good size 6'5" 250 and it is a long, and lean frame. I compare him to Jason Worilds of the Pittsburgh Steelers at this point. If he is able to put on 20 pounds I think Smith could be a freak. In one year he could easily be a 2.45/3.0, should stick around the league because of pass rushing ability. A project.

FST Grade: 6th round

Prospect Value: 2.15/3.0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWCAavZMJBY

SLEEPERS

We aren't talking the movie, which despite some gross scenes is quite fantastic.  Unfortunately, we are talking Sandusky scenes. Anywho, one of the new things I have started is "Steal of Draft" and originally called that my sleeper alert.  There is a difference between getting a steal in the draft and getting a late round sleeper. A steal might be considered a steal because some schlub GMs knocks a guy for 'red flags';  or because he shouldn't have come out; or maybe he had a poor season and a great season the year before. A sleeper is generally a guy you probably don't know too much about and is generally my specialty. I love sleepers because that is what makes a good NFL team a great team. Prepare to be educated

Mock Draft 1.0 (Pre FA Period)

I am not trying to predict what these teams are trying to do, I am giving them the best player to help their team. Why try to predict what these teams will do when the same teams find themselves picking top 10 because they can't draft. I am the dummy for releasing this before free agency but without further adieu...

1) Kansas City Chiefs-- Luke Joeckel OT

2) Jacksonville Jaguars-- Eric Fisher OT

3) Oakland Raiders-- Geno Smith QB

4) Philadelphia Eagles-- Dee Milliner CB

5) Detroit Lions-- Dion Jordan DE

6) Cleveland Browns-- Ziggy Ansah OLB

7) Arizona Cardinals-- Chance Warmack G

8) Buffalo Bills-- Cordarrelle Patterson WR

9) New York Jets-- Barkevious Mingo OLB

10) Tennessee Titans--Jonathan Cooper G

11) San Diego Chargers-- Lane Johnson OT

12) Miami Dolphins-- Damontre Moore DE

13) Tampa Bay Buccaneers-- Xavier Rhodes CB

14) Carolina Panthers-- Shariff Floyd DL

15) New Orleans Saints-- Star Lotuleilei DL

16) St Louis Rams-- Keenan Allen WR

17) Pittsburgh Steelers-- Datone Jones DE

18) Dallas Cowboys-- Sheldon Richardson DL

19) New York Giants-- Alec Ogletree LB

20) Chicago Bears-- Tyler Eifert TE

21) Cincinnati Bengals-- Justin Hunter WR

22) St Louis Rams (via WSH) -- Kenny Vaccaro S

23) Minneosta Vikings-- Manti Te'o MLB 

24) Indianapolis Colts-- DJ Fluker OT

25) Minnesota Vikings (via SEA) -- Tavon Austin WR

26) Green Bay Packers-- Eddie Lacy RB

27) Houston Texans-- Johnathan Hankins DT

28) Denver Broncos-- Kevin Minter MLB

29) New England Patriots-- Desmond Trufant CB

30) Atlanta Falcons-- Zach Ertz TE

31) San Francisco 49ers-- Margus Hunt DE

32) Baltimore Ravens-- Bjoern Werner OLB

Steal of Draft! Tyrann Mathieu CB LSU

I don't know what to say really. I have read countless noobs who won't even give him a second chance. The kid is 20 YEARS OLD. Did you make mistakes when you were 20? Yes. Did you pay as much as he did? No. I believe he finally gets it now and GMs talk about putting players in a box and I can imagine most teams will have him deep in the box. This kid is a top notch talent, top notch kid. Last time we saw the Honeybadger he was constantly around the ball in the toughest conference in football. He has more than enough speed to play either safety or cornerback. I think he needs to add more weight to handle free safety unless the scheme is a centerfield role only primarily. He needs to get stronger, 4 reps won't cut it in the NFL. I would probably play him as a cornerback and on 3rd down use him like a Troy Polamalu, not knowing where he is on the field. He NEEDS to be on the field as much as possible. When someone is born to play football you just find a place on the field for him. Teams talked about Janoris Jenkins last year as a guy who was too much of a risk to take and he turned out to be the steal of the draft. I fully expect Tyrann to have the same impact.

NFL Player Comparison: Tyrann Mathieu

FST Grade: Mid 2nd rd

Projected Round: 3rd rd

Prospect Value: 2.75/3.0

Steal of Draft! Michael Buchanan DE/OLB Illinois

A long, lean, fighting machine. I don't know why people don't like this kid. He wasn't as productive his Senior season as he was his Junior season but quite simply the kid can rush the passer. Could probably use another 10 pounds to play ROLB in a 3-4. I feel he could play LOLB in a 3-4 or DE in a 4-3 with his current weight. Has great size 6'5" 3/8 255 with some long arms. 22 reps with 34" arms is pretty good for an OLB in the 3-4. Has good hand fighting and his speed of the edge consistently causes problems for the OT. Not as stoudt as you would like to see in the running game so for him to be an elite player in the 3-4 he needs to add some weight to handle the physicality of the game. Hybrid players are some of the easiest conversions to the NFL because of their ability to rush the passer and they don't have to really learn anything new. Very underrated player in a pretty impressive LB corps. High-low comparison for Buchanan is Aldon Smith and Jason Worilds of the Pittsburgh Steelers. He has a high ceiling but could end up just being an average NFL player. Bottom line is he has frame to easily add weight. Worth the gamble, had a DUI, could drop in draft because of that and so so Senior season.

NFL Comparison: Aldon Smith---Jason Worilds (high-low)

FST Grade: Early 3rd rd

Projected Round: Day Three

Player Value: 2.4/3.0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVrIjGI4TXg

--Buchanan 2011 Highlights

Steal of Draft! Gavin Escobar TE SDSU

Complaints about drops in his career. When I watch this guy he is like a vacuum, he just sucks it right up. Tall, athletic, prototypical build for a tight end. Blocking could use some work and could use some added weight and his frame can handle it without losing any speed. One of the few tight ends in this class that has it "all". Just a true junior so he is still developing into a man, turned 22 in February. Ran an average 40 compared to what I saw on tape. Hopefully he shaves a tenth off his time during his Pro Day March 19th. Had great numbers in the shuttles and his 20 yard shuttle was 4.31 and Dee Milliner's was 4.32 in comparison. Although Milliner's time was average around CB's the point is that a linebacker can't handle his start and stop speed. Escobar is going to be a matchup nightmare. This kid has a HIGH CEILING with minimal bust potential IMO. Some reports have him as the 3rd best TE and some see him as a potential bust that should have returned for his senior season. He was more productive suring his Sophomore season but I displace some of that blame on the QB because some of the balls were high school throws and he will have QB's putting it on the money in the NFL. I think this guy is a 13-14 year guy that can rack up maybe 6 or 7 Pro Bowls.

NFL Comparison: Tony Gonzalez---Rob Gronkowski

FST Grade: Early 2nd round

Projected Round: Late 2nd-3rd

Player Value: 2.6/3.0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljO2OScTeRI

-2012 highlights

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgZm7M3PoO8

-2011 highlights

Top 100 NFL Free Agents

1) Burnell "Mike" Wallace WR
2) Jake Long OT
3) Louis Delmas S
4) Andre Smith OT
5) Cliff Avril DE
6) Greg Jennings WR
7) Dashon Goldson S
8) Sebastian Vollmer OT
9) Andy Levitre G
10) Aqib Talib CB
11) Wes Welker WR
12) Steven Jackson RB
13) Paul Kruger OLB
14) Keenan Lewis CB
15) Louis Vasquez G
16) Kenny Phillips S
17) Phil Loadholt OT
18) William Moore S
19) Jared Cook TE
20) Dunta Robinson CB
21) Sean Smith CB
22) Reggie Bush RB
23) Rashard Mendenhall RB
24) Rey Maualuga LB
25) Michael Bennett DE
26) Martellus Bennett TE
27) Sam Baker OT
28) Shaun Phillips OLB
29) Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB
30) Charles Woodson S
31) Laron Landry S
32) Brad Jones LB
33) Ed Reed S
34) Connor Barwin OLB
35) Ahmad Bradshaw RB
36) Daryl Smith LB
37) Richard Seymour DL
38) Dannell Ellerbe LB
39) Glover Quin S
40) Matt Moore QB
41) Nick Barnett LB
42) Philip Wheeler LB
43) Dwight Freeney DE
44) Leodis McKelvin CB
45) Erin Henderson LB
46) Osi Umenyiora DE
47) Eric Winston OT
48) Patrick Chung S
49) Chris Houston CB
50) John Abraham DE
51) Israel Idonije DL
52) Austin Collie WR
53) Fred Davis TE
54) Shonn Greene RB
55) Desmond Bryant DL
56) Bryant Mckinnie OT
57) Donnie Avery WR
58) Mike Jenkins CB
59) Thomas Howard LB
60) Dustin Keller TE
61) Brian Urlacher LB
62) Quentin Jammer CB
63) Jammal Brown OT
64) Brent Grimes CB
65) Brandon Moore G
66) Max Starks OT
67) Pacman Jones CB
68) Antoine Cason CB
69) Jerome Felton FB
70) Josh Cribbs WR
71) Chris Canty DL
72) Justin Durant OLB
73) Tracy Porter CB
74) Cedric Benson RB
75) Glenn Dorsey DL
76) Brandon Myers TE
77) Delanie Walker TE
78) Keith Rivers LB
79) Titus Young WR
80) Peyton Hillis RB
81) Barry Richardson OT
82) Shane Lechler P
83) Danny Amendola WR
84) Ted Ginn Jr WR
85) Aaron Curry LB
86) Michael Turner RB
87) Mike Devito DE
88) Donald Jones WR
89) Bernard Scott RB
90) Kevin Boss TE
91) Steve Breaston WR
92) Anthony Fasano TE
93) Julian Edelman WR
94) Phil Dawson K
95) Derek Cox CB
96) Cary Williams CB
97) Ben Watson TE
98) Kyle Vanden Bosch DE
99) Kellen Winslow Jr TE
100) Chris Rainey RB

Top Restricted Free Agents

1) Victor Cruz WR
2) Sam Shields CB
3) Stevie Brown S
4) Fernando Velasco C
5) Emmanuel Sanders WR
6) Danario Alexander WR
7) Dennis Pitta TE
8) Steve McClendon DL
9) Arthur Jones DL
10) Chris Ivory RB