Boom/Bust -- Johnny Manziel

I'm going to call him a BUST.

Johnny Manziel has gone into Tim Tebow supernova territory. The most talked about, controversial, egotistical player this draft. You either love him or hate him. I have gone back and forth on him. The whole Johnny Football craze in 2012 made me hate him. If there ever was a Johnny Football it would be Johnny Unitas and I love Johnny Unitas. Then everyone started to hate him in the offseason and I've been accused of Skip Baylissing as at that time the Johnny Football craze had died down and I was like, okay, I like him. He's a frat star. He gets it in. He's cool. For the record, I would rather have one testicle than be accused of Skip Baylissing. What that means if you don't know is that you take the opposing view just to be controversial and drive a story.

Then the 2013 season started and up until the end of the season I was a Johnny Football fan. Here's the thing. If you play SMU or Sam Houston State those games can only hurt you. You can get hurt or have a pedestrian 250 passing yards and 3 TDs and it's like yeah you just played Sam Houston State. You're supposed to kill them. Even if you throw for 400 yards and 6 TDs, it's thrown out because a guy from Sam Houston State wouldn't even be in "A" ball if football had the minor leagues. You really just throw those performances out because at the next level the bad defenses still have players littered from the top programs in the country. Sorry, John, I don't remember.

Looking at his tape the only two good defenses with NFL players being drafted from them are Missouri and LSU. It really was a down year for SEC defenses. Granted, there were a lot of good QBs this year in the SEC. Maybe the best overall group this century. I put the tape portion of the grading process in those two games and those two games alone, as well as LSU and Alabama last year. Missouri should have two or maybe three players drafted in the first three rounds and LSU should have at least two as well as some other late round guys. It needs addressed right now.

What about Alabama? Shut the fuck up before you hurt yourself. You look at the box scores you say hey Alabama had a good defense this year. Shut up they didn't play a soul. They played four good TEAMS all year, one of which was the bowl game. Not good offenses or good defenses they played Oklahoma and only three good teams in the SEC. The supposed tyrannical government dominating the NCAA until this year. Alabama went 2-2 against good teams. Here's Alabama's schedule: VT (most overrated team EVER and it happens every year), Texas A&M (1), Colorado State (sucks), Mississippi (sucks), GA State (sucks), Kentucky (sucks), Arkansas (sucks), Tennessee (you guessed it.. sucks), LSU (2), Mississippi State (sucks), Chattanooga (flying suck), Auburn (3) , Oklahoma (4). They gave up 138 points against those four teams and 60 points to the other 9 teams combined. Catch my drift.

Now that Alabama is out of the way. Good God. We can return to Manziel's performance against good defenses. He was completely overmatched. The speed of LSU's pass rush was overwhelming not only this year but last year as well. He was constantly overthrowing receivers as he had to stay in the pocket and it was amazing to see CBs not watch Mike Evans catch a ball where Manziel dicks around, heaves it up and says 500. Those are the kind of guys you will be playing against in the NFL every single week.

Manziel really is easy to stop. You just have your DEs contain and throw maybe even a QB spy and he's not doing anything. Make him beat you with his arm. Manziel doesn't have a strong arm. Accuracy is decent. I don't remember too many difficult throws he's made. He's thrown some fly's, slants, outs, but not too many of the more difficult throws far hash to a corner route on the opposite side of the field. Maybe a deep cross through the tiny window. He would scramble make it manageable and get the first down. Not happening in the pros my friend. Many of his big plays are prayers in the NFL that get knocked down or picked off. He's not entirely intelligent. I don't think I've ever seen him change a play at the line. His game is improvisational. He's a backyard QB. LSU's speed was too much for him and he completed 39% of his passes against them this year. It was really ugly. It also looked like he quit on his team. He's not the leader of my football team I'll tell you that much right now. In his two games against LSU, Manziel has 1 TD and 5 INTs with a combined completion percentage of 46%. Yikes! Tim Tebow and Josh Freeman territory. He was neutralized when he tried to scramble and that tells me it's not going to work in the NFL.

All of that just to capture a portion of the FLASH rating. Against good opponents, outside of the Alabama game that won him the Heisman he was very average or awful.

The next order of business is about his size. He's too small. In a picture next to Cliff, or maybe it was Chris Paul, I couldn't tell, he was shorter than him. Paul is listed at six foot. Next to Jameis Winston, who is listed at 6'4" and rape victim says 6'2" Manziel's head was roughly an inch above his nose. I'm calling Manziel (x-4.5) to Jameis Winston. He's 4.5 inches shorter. Now, someone doesn't confuse a legit 6'4" with 6'2". 6'1", 6'2", 6'3" you're tall compared to the average of 5'10" or whatever it is, but when you're 6'4" you're a giant, and this girl would really be looking up to him and with a 6'2" allegation she wasn't really looking up to him that much. Catch my drift.

Then his weight. This is durability. The way he plays, this is critical. How many hits can he take dancing around like a ballerina? Will he even be able to do that with Patrick Willis flying at him? He is listed at 6'1" 215 LBs. Jameis Winston is listed at 6'4" 228 LBs. Do you see the difference? Manziel has no muscle on his body and has chicken legs and you look at Winston and he's a bull. You're supposed to tell me 10 pounds separates the two when you have midget versus grown ass man. When you're taller you can hide the weight bc of a bigger frame and you're going to tell me Johnny Manziel is this condensed strong man. I think not. He's a tot. Manziel prediction 5'11" 3/8 195 LBs. I expect batted balls to be somewhat of a problem for him in his career.

I think so many of his big plays are not replicable in the pro game. Like jumping over an OL and then escaping. That DL grabs you and you go nowhere. Put it this way. Jared Allen grabbed Ben Roethlisberger with ONE ARM and Ben couldn't move. Ben is considered the toughest QB to bring to the turf and one hand is all it took. You think a finger can take down Manziel?

I look at character. The QB is everything. Good QB you win, bad QB you lose. Does character matter? I think he's more concerned with hanging out with celebrities and being a celebrity than being the best QB ever. I already said he looked like he gave up on his team against LSU that night. What kind of guy do you want? Do you want the guy that when it's going great to be chipper or when shit hits the fan he doesn't care up or down ten he's going to fight until the end. I prefer the latter.

He gets knocked for character, durability, height, arm strength, subpar accuracy, intelligence, transferability of game to the NFL, and performance against top echelon opponents. It all adds up to five years from now you going with their first round pick the Houston Texans select …. QB

Miami Dolphins GM Scenario

The Miami Dolphins are 21M under the salary cap for 2014.

Let's give Joe Philbin a round of applause for almost making the playoffs and the Miami Dolphins being the Miami Dolphins at 8-8. He's a choke. I'd dump him next year unless they make the playoffs. You could easily lure a college coach to the Miami sun. What about Chucky? That would be unreal. Give him like 8M, no one turns that down. John Gruden, I love.

First order of business is cutting a guy I've never heard of. Dimitri Patterson. It was a breakout year I suppose for this guy. Went on IR with a groin. He amassed 4 INTs of his 9 career. He is 30, you dump him you save another 5.4M. Releasing Matt Moore saves 4M. He is schedule to make more than Ryan Tannehill next year and that can't happen.

Let's work with 30M cap room. I re-sign Brent Grimes to the money saved by cutting Dimitri Patterson. Damn back to 25M. Other FA's of Miami I would consider as they don't have a whole lot would be Randy Starks and maybe a John Jerry. Starks would come with a hefty price tag so an alternative would be the monster known as LaMarr Houston DT from Oakland who comes with similar production and a smaller price tag. Granted, teams like to bring back their own guys for familiarity reasons. I just prefer amassing the most amount of talent possible for 125M.

The Dolphins need playmakers on both sides of the ball. A CB is a must. Either in UFA like a run DRC or maybe a guy like Justin Gilbert who had 6 INTs at Oklahoma State. Gilbert is not only a ballhawk but can hurt you on the INT return or in the special teams return game. Gilbert is a sure-fire first round pick. They could be in the running for a Jairius Byrd as this safety draft class isn't too hot outside of Haha Clinton-Dix. Clinton-Dix should be there when they select in the first round. Definitely thinking DB for Miami in round one.

I like Rishard Matthews and Hartline is OK. He's not a pesky Welker type. He's a possession guy and I'd love to see Jeremy Maclin in a Dolphins uniform. Two speedsters with Wallace and Maclin and with Clay, Hartline, and Miller that should be a dynamic offense. Finally.

Draft Picks?

Haha Clinton-Dix FS (1st)
Justin Gilbert CB (1st)
Antonio Richardson OT (1st-2nd)
Xavier Su'a-Filo G (2nd)
Cyril Richardson G (2nd-3rd)
Gabe Jackson G (3rd-5th)

Free agents?

Jairius Byrd S
Branden Albert OT
Blindside OT
Dominique Rodgers Cromartie CB
LaMarr Houston DT
Jeremy Maclin WR

Top Four Needs

OL
DB
S
DT/WR

Randy Starks wasn't overly dominant this year and can be replaced. I'm signing Maclin and saying screw you Bellidick stop us with your joke defense. The Dolphins need to sure up that abysmal line and should be thinking 1-2 draft picks along the OL. Sprinkle in a defensive playmaker in the first round and you might have something. Maybe sign DRC and then go Clinton-Dix in round one. Need more explosive weapons on offense as Wallace is a decoy kinda as he's just going to get doubled but if you have someone potent on the other side than he will get better looks downfield. Wallace also needs to catch the damn ball. I would like to see him work more underneath routes and capitalize on his speed in the open field

Indianapolis Colts GM Scenario

This one should be fun. The Colts have over 36M in cap space for 2014. There is a cap floor on how much you must give out in contracts each year so it will be interesting to see how they spend their cash this year. If you put all of your eggs in one basket this year by signing everyone in sight you may run into problems down the road as you must sign 80M worth of total contracts ("new money" not just moving money around) each year or something like that. Think about it. That's one top UFA and re-signing some of your own players and you're there. You can't just spend 300M like the NYY in one year as you wouldn't be able to be under the cap in future years bc you must dish out money each year.

First, you cut Matt Hasselbeck and Samson Satele, which saves 6.25M. I don't believe in old WRs coming off knee injuries either, so I'd cut Reggie Wayne as well, saving another 4M. So, let's call it 46M of cap space and let the games begin.

Franchise tag Vontae Davis or sign him long-term. I guess I'll have to stop sending Vontae to other teams. He's not going anywhere. He could be had for first year cap hit in the 4-6M range, with of course over 10M to sign and rising cap hits throughout the deal. 5yrs/50M should be fair value for a guy of his caliber. Leaning more towards a number lower, than higher than that.

This is what separates the men from the boys. Decisions, decisions. I let Antoine Bethea walk and I sign Jairius Byrd. I imagine the Colts love Bethea for some reason and he's OK and will be re-signed, but I'll pay an extra 3-4M a year to have Byrd over Bethea. That's like going from a C to a B.

They have major league problems at multiple positions on this roster. The OL is terrible. The WR corps is depleted. They have no talented MLB's for their 3-4. The front 3 is very suspect. Well, their front seven minus Robert Mathis is suspect. Didn't like the Bjoern Werner draft pick, maybe he fills in at 3-4 OLB next year. Who will be the RB? Re-sign Brown not a bad idea. Bring back Vinatieri and Mcafee also good ideas.

If you cut Reggie you have T.Y. as the starter and that's a bad look. I think T.Y. is a good 3rd and luckily for them this is an A+ WR UFA and draft class. I think make a move at Jeremy Maclin as he's coming off a knee injury and won't be getting too much cash. Maybe an Eric Decker. Maybe both. They have the cap room. No need to show love to Reggie at the ripe age of 35 going on 36 when you can bring in young talent at the same price or slightly above and have them for 5 more years. They don't have a 1st rd pick but with some solid UFA signings they could be Super Bowl contenders. Still think a guy like Darren McFadden is the perfect guy for this system. I'd trade Trent for a 2nd rd pick, but they won't do that.

Draft Picks?

Davante Adams WR (1st-2nd)
Brandin Cooks WR (2nd-3rd)
Dominique Easley DT (3rd-4th)
Ryan Shazier ILB (2nd-3rd)
Christian Jones ILB (2nd-3rd)
Gabe Jackson G (3rd-5th) PRO BOWLER

Free Agents?

Branden Albert OT
Jeremy Maclin WR
Eric Decker WR
Jairius Byrd FS
LaMarr Houston DL
Jason Worilds OLB

Top Four Needs

WR
ILB
OT
DL

I think the Colts need to bring in 4 top UFA's bc they don't have a 1st rd pick. One will be the choice of Byrd over Bethea. The other three would be Decker, LaMarr Houston DL who is an absolute beast, and Branden Albert OT to protect Luck. I think Decker and Luck could be like two peas in a pod. I'd feel more comfortable flipping Castonzo to RT and having Albert at LT than Castonzo at LT and Gosder freaking Cherilus at RT. Winning the division means tougher schedule and let's see what the great Ryan Grigson can do. Do you think he can beat FST?

Lions GM Scenario

I think the Rams had an easy fix. I think a few elite offensive weapons and I think they got something there. As for Detroit, don't like their secondary at all. The little dutch boy Rashean Mathis will be gone and I'm not a fan of Chris Houston. Very overrated. I would like to see them go after a nice UFA CB like a Vontae Davis to solidify that secondary. Their LB's have improved as I've always seen that as a weakness of this team. Been pleasantly surprised by play of Tulloch and Levy. Of the two, Levy is the guy I want and would prefer an upgrade over Tulloch.

The first priority of Detroit this offseason now that they got their head coach is to do something with Ndamukong Suh's contract. You can't pay any player, even a franchise QB, 22.4M as a cap hit in 2014. They could knock 10M off that number with an extension or a restructure.

Nate Burleson should be cut. Saves 5.5M. Plenty o good WRs this draft for the Lions to take in round one hehe. Imagine a Kelvin Benjamin or a Sammy Watkins playing with Calvin. Yikes! They should be able to get one of them without having to trade up.

Another guy I'd love to see on that Detroit defense is Michael Johnson DE. The Lions have three 1st rd pick DL and if you add this guy to the mix watch out. Problem is he might be the most expensive UFA this year so Detroit would have some spring cleaning to do to be able to make a move like this.

Maybe go after Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie as well. A cheaper alternative to Vontae Davis. Personally, I'd take them both. Should be able to get them both for under 10M combined cap hit in 2014. They also need an upgrade at the OLB position over Ashlee Palmer. Who the hell is that? Exactly.

Lions are currently 5M over the cap in 2014.

Rams GM Scenario

The Rams hold the 2nd and 13th pick in this year's draft. Trade back from the 2nd overall pick and pick up at least another 2nd round pick. Someone will surely be trading up for Clowney or maybe a quarterback. Moving only a few spots back to say the 7th overall pick range. With the 7th pick, select Sammy Watkins WR and with the 13th pick select Kelvin Benjamin WR. With the extra pick pair that with your own 2nd rd pick and jump up to the 27th pick range and get Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE. Now, Sam Bradford has weapons and with Tavon Austin in the fold the Greatest Show on Turf would be back

Underclassmen Update

1) Jadeveon Clowney DE
2) Kelvin Benjamin WR
3) Sammy Watkins WR
4) Khalil Mack OLB
5) Greg Robinson OT
5) Blake Bortles QB
6) Eric Ebron TE
7) Teddy Bridgewater QB
8) Davante Adams WR
9) Marqise Lee WR
11) Louis Nix III NT
12) Justin Gilbert CB
13) Anthony Barr OLB
14) Ra'Shede Hageman DE
15) Johnny Manziel QB
16) Bradley Roby CB
16) Haha Clinton-Dix S
17) Darqueze Dennard CB
18) Stephon Tuitt DE
19) Trent Murphy DE
20) Taylor Lewan OT
21) Mike Evans WR
22) Cyrus Kouandijo OT
23) Vic Beasley OLB
24) Lache Seastrunk RB
25) Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE